> MATCH.PREDICT()Β·World: World CupΒ·Saturday 27 Jun, 03:00 UTC
New Zealand vs Belgium
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain β every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals is the play at 80% probabilityβBelgium's 2.13 xG plus New Zealand's 0.85 creates a combined 2.98 expected goals that rewards the higher total.
Win probability
12.2% home23.9% draw63.8% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
New ZealandstepBelgium
0.85Base xG Β· rolling 26-match2.13
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
0.85Final Ξ» β what the Poisson uses2.13
Scoreline distribution Β· P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
11
11
8
4
2
1
1
4
9
10
7
4
2
1
2
2
4
4
3
2
1
3
1
1
1
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS Β· player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
New Zealand 1β5 Belgium
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+