> MATCH.PREDICT()Β·World: World CupΒ·Tuesday 30 Jun, 01:00 UTC
Netherlands vs Morocco
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain β every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% because both sides carry genuine attacking threatβNetherlands' 1.56 xG led by Gakpo and Morocco's 1.31 anchored by En-Nesyri project a combined 2.87 expected goals in a fixture too even to stay quiet.
Win probability
40.3% home30.4% draw29.3% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
NetherlandsstepMorocco
1.56Base xG Β· rolling 26-match1.31
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.56Final Ξ» β what the Poisson uses1.31
Scoreline distribution Β· P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Cody Gakpo 1+ Shot on Target + Over 2.5 Goals + 1X + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 27.5% Β· @ 3.64x
Take this pick β> STAR_PICKS Β· player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+