Netherlands vs Morocco
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% because both sides carry genuine attacking threat—Netherlands' 1.56 xG led by Gakpo and Morocco's 1.31 anchored by En-Nesyri project a combined 2.87 expected goals in a fixture too even to stay quiet.
Morocco average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Netherlands vs Morocco — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Netherlands and Morocco — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Netherlands 40% · draw 30% · Morocco 29%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.