What we expect · full match
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s most recent matches (up to six), home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast.
What we expect
In plain English
Neom SC should get at least a draw here. They have won four of their last six, and the model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Al Ettifaq. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Neom SC or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Neom SC · last 6
Al Ettifaq · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 76%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Neom SC vs Al Ettifaq?
Bawler's model rates this match: Neom SC are favoured (52% win probability vs 24% for Al Ettifaq, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Neom SC vs Al Ettifaq?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Neom SC 1-1 Al Ettifaq (11.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Neom SC vs Al Ettifaq?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Neom SC 52%, the draw 24% and Al Ettifaq 24%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Neom SC vs Al Ettifaq?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Neom SC expecting 1.82 goals and Al Ettifaq 1.17.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Neom SC vs Al Ettifaq?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.