FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026

Al Nassr 1–0 Neom SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 20 October 2026

Al Nassr
1–0
Al Nassr win
Neom SC

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Nassr to win at 63%. Bawler had Al Nassr at 63%, the draw at 22% and Neom SC at 15%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Nassr win
63%
Result
Draw
22%
Neom SC win
15%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.0 – 0.9
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 0.4
From the match itself

The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Nassr to win
Pre-match: 63%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Nassr's home win forecast rests on a decisive 1.18 expected-goals advantage, translating to 64% win probability against Neom SC's attacking scarcity."

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