FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Saturday, 24 October 2026

Neom SC 2–0 AbhaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026

Neom SC
2–0
Neom SC win
Abha

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Neom SC or draw at 81%. Bawler had Neom SC at 53%, the draw at 27% and Abha at 19%. The match finished 2–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Neom SC win
53%
Result
Draw
27%
Abha win
19%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 0.8
Total 2.3
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 0.7
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.3.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Neom SC or draw
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 21%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Neom SC's 0.71 expected-goals advantage underpins the model's 81% forecast for Neom SC or draw, reflecting a home side that should dominate without conceding."

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