FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Saturday, 17 October 2026

Neom SC 0–1 Al EttifaqMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026

Neom SC
0–1
Al Ettifaq win
Al Ettifaq

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Neom SC or draw at 77%. Bawler had Neom SC at 52%, the draw at 24% and Al Ettifaq at 23%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Neom SC win
52%
Draw
24%
Al Ettifaq win
23%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.1
From the match itself

The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Medium confidence
Neom SC to win
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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