FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026

Al Ettifaq 1–4 Al IttihadMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 20 October 2026

Al Ettifaq
1–4
Al Ittihad win
Al Ittihad

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Ittihad or draw at 68%. Bawler had Al Ettifaq at 32%, the draw at 24% and Al Ittihad at 44%. The match finished 1–4.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Ettifaq win
32%
Draw
24%
Al Ittihad win
44%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.8
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 2.9
From the match itself

The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 84% confidence as both sides project 3.30 combined expected goals with Al Ittihad holding a modest 10-point win-probability edge that suggests attacking intent from the visitor."

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