Match prediction·NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie·Saturday 08 Aug, 14:30 UTC

NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
59.2% home24.0% draw16.9% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
NEC NijmegenstepTelstar
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Nijmegen average 6.8 corners per game at home this season (18 competitive matches). Telstar average 4.1 corners per game away from home this season (18 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
83%
Telstar or draw
22%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

NEC Nijmegen fixtures & form →Telstar fixtures & form →

Nijmegen vs Telstar — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 2 May 2026, Nijmegen have won 0, Telstar have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
2 May 2026Nijmegen 0–1 TelstarNETHERLANDS: Eredivisie

The model's verdict for this fixture: Nijmegen 59% · draw 24% · Telstar 17%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Nijmegen predictions & form →Telstar predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Telstar
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.