FT · Europe: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 04 August 2026
Olympiacos 0–0 NEC NijmegenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 04 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Olympiacos at 34%, draw at 40%, NEC Nijmegen at 26%. The match ended 0-0 — confirming the model's lean toward a draw.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Olympiacos win
34%
Draw
40%
Actual ✓
Nijmegen win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.93 – 0.77
Total 1.70
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Under 2.5 Goals dominates at 79% probability because combined expected goals of just 1.70 leaves little margin for a multi-goal affair."