Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelFC Twente on top, and Younes Taha getting plenty of shots away.
NEC Nijmegen v FC Twente prediction
Our model gives NEC Nijmegen 22%, the draw 22% and FC Twente 55%, so FC Twente start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is NEC Nijmegen 1–2 FC Twente, the most likely FC Twente win (10%). Our expected goals are 1.3 for NEC Nijmegen and 2.1 for FC Twente, 3.3 in all. Both teams scoring is 63% and three or more goals is 65%.
Of the players, Tjaronn Chery of NEC Nijmegen tops our shots forecast at 2.6, if they start. Wout Weghorst (FC Twente) leads for shots on target, at 1.1. For cards, Ahmetcan Kaplan (NEC Nijmegen) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. In their last six games NEC Nijmegen have three wins, two draws and one defeat, while FC Twente have four wins, one draw and one defeat. NEC Nijmegen won their most recent match and FC Twente drew theirs.
Of their last five meetings on our records, NEC Nijmegen have won none, FC Twente three, and two were drawn. When they last met, it finished FC Twente 1–1 NEC Nijmegen, in Apr 2026. On shots, our forecast is 14.3 for NEC Nijmegen and 16.4 for FC Twente, with 4.8 and 6.4 on target, and corners at 4.8 to 5.1. Bawler's pick combines FC Twente or Draw, FC Twente Over 12.5 Shots and Younes Taha 2+ Shots. We make the chance of all three coming in 44%, a fair price of 5/4 (2.29).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
NEC Nijmegen · last 6
FC Twente · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
FC Twente or draw is 78% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Twente are favoured (55% win probability vs 22% for NEC Nijmegen, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente?
Bawler's predicted score is NEC Nijmegen 1-2 FC Twente: the most likely score if FC Twente win, which is the likeliest result (55%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.5%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives NEC Nijmegen 22%, the draw 22% and FC Twente 55%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 63% chance. That is based on NEC Nijmegen expecting 1.27 goals and FC Twente 2.06.
Over or under 2.5 goals in NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 65%.
When are the NEC Nijmegen v FC Twente line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for NEC Nijmegen v FC Twente?
FC Twente or Draw (78%), FC Twente Over 12.5 Shots (77%), Younes Taha 2+ Shots (67%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 44% chance, a fair price of 5/4 (2.29). 18+, please gamble responsibly.