Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelPSV Eindhoven on top, and Sven Mijnans getting plenty of shots away.
NEC Nijmegen v PSV Eindhoven prediction
Our model makes PSV Eindhoven favourites for this Eredivisie game, giving them a 56% chance of winning. NEC Nijmegen are 23% and the draw is 21%. Our predicted score is NEC Nijmegen 1–2 PSV Eindhoven (9%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. NEC Nijmegen are expected to score 1.4 goals and PSV Eindhoven 2.2, 3.6 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (67%) and three or more goals is 70%.
In their last six games NEC Nijmegen have two wins, three draws and one defeat, while PSV Eindhoven have two wins, one draw and three defeats. NEC Nijmegen won their most recent match and PSV Eindhoven lost theirs. Of their last five meetings on our records, NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven have two wins each, with one draw. The last meeting ended PSV Eindhoven 2–3 NEC Nijmegen, in Mar 2026.
We expect NEC Nijmegen to have 15.6 shots (5.1 on target) and PSV Eindhoven 14.4 (5.5 on target), and corners at 4.8 to 4.8. Bawler's pick for this game is PSV Eindhoven or Draw, PSV Eindhoven Over 10.5 Shots and Sven Mijnans 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 43% chance, which makes the fair price 11/8 (2.32).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
NEC Nijmegen · last 6
PSV Eindhoven · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
PSV Eindhoven or draw is 77% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Bawler's model rates this match: PSV Eindhoven are favoured (56% win probability vs 23% for NEC Nijmegen, 21% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Bawler's predicted score is NEC Nijmegen 1-2 PSV Eindhoven: the most likely score if PSV Eindhoven win, which is the likeliest result (56%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.2%. Expected total goals: 3.6.
How does Bawler predict NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives NEC Nijmegen 23%, the draw 21% and PSV Eindhoven 56%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 67% chance. That is based on NEC Nijmegen expecting 1.39 goals and PSV Eindhoven 2.22.
Over or under 2.5 goals in NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Bawler's model expects 3.6 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 70%.
When are the NEC Nijmegen v PSV Eindhoven line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for NEC Nijmegen v PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven or Draw (77%), PSV Eindhoven Over 10.5 Shots (78%), Sven Mijnans 2+ Shots (65%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 43% chance, a fair price of 11/8 (2.32). 18+, please gamble responsibly.