Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelStade Rennais on top, with Boulaye Dia our likeliest to test the keeper.
NEC Nijmegen v Stade Rennais prediction
Our model gives NEC Nijmegen 28%, the draw 23% and Stade Rennais 49%, so Stade Rennais start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Stade Rennais, the most likely Stade Rennais win (9%). NEC Nijmegen are expected to score 1.5 goals and Stade Rennais 2.0, 3.5 between them. Both teams scoring is 68% and three or more goals is 69%.
Tjaronn Chery is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.3 shots and 1.0 on target for NEC Nijmegen, if they start. For cards, Ahmetcan Kaplan (NEC Nijmegen) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. On form, NEC Nijmegen have three wins, two draws and one defeat from their last six games, and Stade Rennais have one win, two draws and three defeats.
On shots, our forecast is 19.4 for NEC Nijmegen and 12.5 for Stade Rennais, with 6.2 and 4.5 on target, and corners at 5.9 to 4.2. So we expect NEC Nijmegen to do more of the shooting. Bawler's pick combines Stade Rennais or Draw, Stade Rennais Over 8.5 Shots and Boulaye Dia 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 35%, a fair price of 15/8 (2.88).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
NEC Nijmegen · last 6
Stade Rennais · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Stade Rennais or draw is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler's model rates this match: Stade Rennais are favoured (49% win probability vs 28% for NEC Nijmegen, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for NEC Nijmegen vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler's predicted score is NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Stade Rennais: the most likely score if Stade Rennais win, which is the likeliest result (49%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.9%. Expected total goals: 3.5.
How does Bawler predict NEC Nijmegen vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives NEC Nijmegen 28%, the draw 23% and Stade Rennais 49%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Stade Rennais?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 68% chance. That is based on NEC Nijmegen expecting 1.50 goals and Stade Rennais 2.03.
Over or under 2.5 goals in NEC Nijmegen vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler's model expects 3.5 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 69%.
When are the NEC Nijmegen v Stade Rennais line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for NEC Nijmegen v Stade Rennais?
Stade Rennais or Draw (72%), Stade Rennais Over 8.5 Shots (81%), Boulaye Dia 1+ Shot on Target (52%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 35% chance, a fair price of 15/8 (2.88). 18+, please gamble responsibly.