Napoli vs Como prediction — Serie A · Sun 30 Aug · 17:30 UK

Serie A · Sun 30 Aug · 17:30 UK
Napoli 32Draw 29Como 40
The call
71%
Over 1.5 goals
2.5
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–2

How it finished

Como beat Napoli 2–1. Bawler's model had Como in front at 40% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 3. Napoli had 13 shots (2 on target) to Como's 21 (6), with 42% of the ball against 58%. On expected goals it was 1.4 to 1.0, so Napoli created the better chances and still lost the game.

NapoliFull-time statsComo
42%Possession58%
1.4Expected goals (xG)1.0
13Shots21
2Shots on target6
9Shots inside box13
1Big chances0
2Corners7
4Saves1
9Fouls5
9Offsides0
1Yellow cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultComo 40%Como (40% called)
Total goals2.53
Both teams to score51%Yes
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 71%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Under 3.5 goals76%
Como to score74%
Over 1.5 goals71%
Napoli to score69%

First half — what we expected

NapoliBefore half-timeComo
42%Chance to score38%
4.0Expected shots4.4
1.3Expected shots on target1.3
2.1Expected corners1.5
73%Chance of 3+ shots78%
36%Chance of 5+ shots44%
36%Chance of 2+ shots on target36%
85%Chance of 1+ corners75%
35%Chance of 3+ corners21%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 64%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)-0.2 / match
Head-to-head, last 5NAP 1 · D 3 · COM 1
Opponent strength indexUpper mid

Head to head

May 2026Como 0–0 Napoli
Feb 2026Napoli 1–1 Como
Nov 2025Napoli 0–0 Como
Feb 2025Como 2–1 Napoli
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Napoli vs Como?

Como beat Napoli 2–1. Bawler's model had Como in front at 40% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 3. Napoli had 13 shots (2 on target) to Como's 21 (6), with 42% of the ball against 58%. On expected goals it was 1.4 to 1.0, so Napoli created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Napoli vs Como?

Napoli 1–2 Como, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the ITALY: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Napoli 32%, the draw 29% and Como 40%.

What were the stats in Napoli vs Como?

Full-time: Possession 42%–58%, Expected goals (xG) 1.4–1.0, Shots 13–21, Shots on target 2–6, Shots inside box 9–13, Big chances 1–0, Corners 2–7, Saves 4–1, Fouls 9–5, Offsides 9–0, Yellow cards 1–0.

Did both teams score in Napoli vs Como?

Yes — both Napoli and Como scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Napoli vs Como right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Como 40%, it finished Como (40% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 71%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Napoli form →Como form →