Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC prediction — MLS · Thu 20 Aug · 01:30 UK

MLS · Thu 20 Aug · 01:30 UK
Minnesota United FC 52Draw 25Atlanta United FC 23
The call
77%
Over 1.5 goals
2.8
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–2

How it finished

Atlanta United FC beat Minnesota United FC 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Minnesota United FC at 52% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Atlanta United FC 23%. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Minnesota United FC had 13 shots (4 on target) to Atlanta United FC's 10 (3), with 53% of the ball against 47%. On expected goals it was 2.0 to 0.9, so Minnesota United FC created the better chances and still lost the game.

Minnesota…Full-time statsAtlanta…
53%Possession47%
2.0Expected goals (xG)0.9
13Shots10
4Shots on target3
11Shots inside box6
6Big chances2
6Corners4
1Saves3
13Fouls13
4Offsides2
4Yellow cards3
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultMinnesota United FC 52%Atlanta United FC (23% called)
Total goals2.83
Both teams to score55%Yes
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 77%Landed
Second callOver 2.5 Goals 54%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Minnesota United FC to score83%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Under 3.5 goals68%
Atlanta United FC to score66%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.7 / match
Head-to-head, last 5MIN 2 · D 0 · ATL 3
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

May 2024Atlanta United 1–2 Minnesota United
Aug 2019Atlanta United 2–1 Minnesota United
May 2019Atlanta United 3–0 Minnesota United
Apr 2018Minnesota United 0–1 Atlanta United
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC?

Atlanta United FC beat Minnesota United FC 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Minnesota United FC at 52% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Atlanta United FC 23%. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Minnesota United FC had 13 shots (4 on target) to Atlanta United FC's 10 (3), with 53% of the ball against 47%. On expected goals it was 2.0 to 0.9, so Minnesota United FC created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC?

Minnesota United FC 1–2 Atlanta United FC, played on 20 Aug 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Minnesota United FC 52%, the draw 25% and Atlanta United FC 23%.

What were the stats in Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC?

Full-time: Possession 53%–47%, Expected goals (xG) 2.0–0.9, Shots 13–10, Shots on target 4–3, Shots inside box 11–6, Big chances 6–2, Corners 6–4, Saves 1–3, Fouls 13–13, Offsides 4–2, Yellow cards 4–3.

Did both teams score in Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC?

Yes — both Minnesota United FC and Atlanta United FC scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Minnesota United FC 52%, it finished Atlanta United FC (23% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 77%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said Over 2.5 Goals 54%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

MLS table →
All fixtures & results →Minnesota United FC form →Atlanta United FC form →