Match prediction·USA: MLS·Thursday 20 Aug, 00:30 UTC

Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
54.2% home25.3% draw20.5% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Minnesota United FCstepAtlanta United FC
1.77Base xG · rolling 26-match1.09
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.77Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.09

Minnesota United average 5.2 corners per game at home this season (27 competitive matches). Atlanta Utd average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
6
3
1
1
10
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
1
3
5
6
3
1
4
2
3
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

More predictions for these teams

Minnesota United vs Atlanta Utd — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Minnesota United and Atlanta Utd — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Minnesota United 54% · draw 25% · Atlanta Utd 20%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.