> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Wednesday 01 Jul, 01:00 UTC
Mexico vs Ecuador
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals hits 81% probability because combined xG of 2.80 and Mexico's 1.54 attacking threat—led by Giménez's 22% team shot share—overwhelms Ecuador's 1.25 defensive capacity.
Win probability
41.0% home30.8% draw28.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
MexicostepEcuador
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.31
× 1.10Home advantage · Host nation× 0.95
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.54Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.25
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Raúl Jiménez 1+ Shot on Target + Over 2.5 Goals + Under 10.5 Corners
Model 27.7% · @ 3.61x
Take this pick →> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Mexico 2–0 Ecuador
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+