Bawler / World: World Cup / Mexico
Team profile · World: World Cup

Mexico Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
8
8 settled
Goals for
1.53
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.19
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
75%
6/8 calls

Mexico prediction: Bawler's model rates Mexico at 1.53 expected goals scored and 1.19 conceded per match across 8 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 75% of the time. They have won 4 of their last 5 settled matches. No Mexico fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Mexico sit close to the World Cup average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.53 expected goals a game and conceding 1.19. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.00 a game against 1.53 expected. Recent form is good, with 4 wins in their last 5. Across 8 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Mexico have been correct 75% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
5W 2D 1L
Real goals
2.0 – 0.6
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Mexico compare with the World: World Cup average, per match.

Goals for
1.53
Above average
Goals against
1.19
Tighter than most
Scored1.53
Conceded1.19

The grey line on each bar is the World: World Cup average (1.33 scored, 1.38 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.53 xG per match · +0.20 above the World: World Cup average of 1.33.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.19 xG per match · -0.19 vs league average of 1.38.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 71% of the time on Mexico fixtures (5/7).

📊 Mexico in numbers

5 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.0
Goals · per game
let in 0.6
🏠 1.8✈️ 3.0
5.0
Corners · per game
give up 4.0
🏠 5.0
14.3
Shots · per game
faced 7.3
🏠 14.3
4.0
On target · per game
faced 2.7
🏠 4.0
🗓️ Last 5 games
06 Jul
2-3
vs England
🚩 12-2
01 Jul
2-0
vs Ecuador
🚩 3-8
25 Jun
3-0
@ Czechia
🚩 -
19 Jun
1-0
vs South Korea
🚩 0-2
11 Jun
2-0
vs South Africa
🚩 -

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Mexico matches
75%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 8

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Mexico fixture, it is right 6 out of 8 (75%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 8)

Mexico prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly