What we expect
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Mexico vs Colombia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Mexico are favoured (41% win probability vs 30% for Colombia, 30% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs Colombia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Mexico 1-1 Colombia (13.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.34.
How does Bawler predict Mexico vs Colombia?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Mexico 41%, the draw 30% and Colombia 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Mexico vs Colombia?
BTTS: No (53% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.28 and away expected goals 1.06.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Mexico vs Colombia?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.34. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).