What we expect
In plain English
FC Porto are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won five of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Maritimo, and Maritimo have not beaten them in their last five meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
FC Porto to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Maritimo vs FC Porto?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Porto are favoured (66% win probability vs 13% for Maritimo, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Maritimo vs FC Porto?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Maritimo 0-2 FC Porto (11.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.89.
How does Bawler predict Maritimo vs FC Porto?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Maritimo 13%, the draw 21% and FC Porto 66%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs FC Porto?
BTTS: No (51% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 0.81 and away expected goals 2.07.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Maritimo vs FC Porto?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.89. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).