FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Maritimo 1–2 FC PortoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Porto to win at 66%. Bawler had Maritimo at 13%, the draw at 21% and FC Porto at 66%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Maritimo win
13%
Draw
21%
FC Porto win
66%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.8 – 2.1
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Porto to win
Pre-match: 66%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.