Match prediction·PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal·Saturday 08 Aug, 14:30 UTC

Maritimo vs Casa Pia

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
51.8% home29.6% draw18.6% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
MaritimostepCasa Pia
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Casa Pia average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (19 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Maritimo or draw
73%
Under 2.5 goals
51%
Casa Pia or draw
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Maritimo fixtures & form →Casa Pia fixtures & form →

Maritimo vs Casa Pia — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Maritimo and Casa Pia — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Maritimo 52% · draw 30% · Casa Pia 19%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Maritimo predictions & form →Casa Pia predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
Maritimo 1–0 Casa Pia
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.