How it finished
Manchester City beat Manchester United 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Manchester United at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Manchester City 32%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 1 was scored. Manchester United had 16 shots (3 on target) to Manchester City's 6 (2), with 55% of the ball against 45%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 1.0.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Manchester City beat Manchester United 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Manchester United at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Manchester City 32%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 1 was scored. Manchester United had 16 shots (3 on target) to Manchester City's 6 (2), with 55% of the ball against 45%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 1.0.
What was the final score in Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Manchester United 0–1 Manchester City, played on 13 Sept 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Manchester United 43%, the draw 25% and Manchester City 32%.
What were the stats in Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Full-time: Possession 55%–45%, Expected goals (xG) 1.0–1.0, Shots 16–6, Shots on target 3–2, Shots inside box 6–2, Big chances 1–2, Corners 6–7, Saves 1–3, Fouls 17–10, Offsides 4–1, Yellow cards 1–2, Red cards 0–1.
Did both teams score in Manchester United vs Manchester City?
No. It finished 0–1, so Manchester United failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 61% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Manchester United vs Manchester City right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Manchester United or draw 68%, it finished Manchester City won (32% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 61%, it finished No.