What we expect
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Bawler's model rates this match: Manchester United are favoured (42% win probability vs 32% for Manchester City, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Manchester City?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Manchester United 1-1 Manchester City (11.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.05.
How does Bawler predict Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Manchester United 42%, the draw 25% and Manchester City 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Manchester City?
BTTS: Yes (61% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.64 and away expected goals 1.41.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.05. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).