FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Liverpool 0–3 Manchester CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Liverpool or draw at 65%. Bawler had Liverpool at 39%, the draw at 26% and Manchester City at 35%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Liverpool win
39%
Draw
26%
Manchester City win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.