FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham HotspurMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester United to win at 60%. Bawler had Manchester United at 60%, the draw at 23% and Tottenham Hotspur at 17%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Manchester United win
60%
Draw
23%
Result
Tottenham Hotspur win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.0
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Manchester United or draw
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.