FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Manchester United 0–1 Manchester CityMatch recap · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Manchester United win
43%
Draw
25%
Manchester City win
32%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.