FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Fulham 1–1 Manchester UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Fulham at 32%, draw at 26%, Manchester United at 42%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Manchester United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fulham win
32%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
United win
42%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.39 – 1.61
Total 3.00
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% because both sides generate similar attacking threat—Fulham 1.37 xG and Manchester United 1.56 xG—leaving little defensive margin in a fixture built for multiple goals."