Lorient beat Paris FC 1–0. Lorient had 8 shots (5 on target) to Paris FC's 16 (3), with 40% of the ball against 60%. On expected goals it was 0.5 to 0.7, so Paris FC created the better chances and still lost the game.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Lorient beat Paris FC 1–0. Lorient had 8 shots (5 on target) to Paris FC's 16 (3), with 40% of the ball against 60%. On expected goals it was 0.5 to 0.7, so Paris FC created the better chances and still lost the game.
Lorient 1–0 Paris FC, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the France: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with Lorient 43%, the draw 27% and Paris FC 30%.
Full-time: Possession 40%–60%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–0.7, Shots 8–16, Shots on target 5–3, Shots inside box 6–8, Big chances 0–1, Corners 3–9, Saves 3–3, Fouls 9–13, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 1–5.
No. It finished 1–0, so Paris FC failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.