FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Lens 2–1 Paris FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lens or draw at 78%. Bawler had Lens at 55%, the draw at 22% and Paris FC at 22%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lens win
55%
Result
Draw
22%
Paris FC win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.3
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 84%, backed by Lens's 0.82 expected-goal advantage and their striker Sotoca commanding 20% of team creation in a fixture where combined xG totals 3.30."