FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Angers 0–0 LorientMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lorient or draw at 69%. Bawler had Angers at 31%, the draw at 27% and Lorient at 42%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Angers win
31%
Draw
27%
Result
Lorient win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.5
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Missed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals forecasts as the high-confidence call at 75%, with both sides combining for 2.69 expected goals and Lorient's marginal 1.45 xG edge suggesting an attacking blueprint Angers cannot easily neutralize."