Liverpool beat Tottenham Hotspur 3–1. Liverpool had 12 shots (5 on target) to Tottenham Hotspur's 17 (6), with 44% of the ball against 56%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 2.3, so Tottenham Hotspur created the better chances and still lost the game.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Liverpool beat Tottenham Hotspur 3–1. Liverpool had 12 shots (5 on target) to Tottenham Hotspur's 17 (6), with 44% of the ball against 56%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 2.3, so Tottenham Hotspur created the better chances and still lost the game.
Liverpool 3–1 Tottenham Hotspur, played on 15 Sept 2026 in the England: EFL Cup. Bawler's model had gone into it with Liverpool 56%, the draw 24% and Tottenham Hotspur 20%.
Full-time: Possession 44%–56%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–2.3, Shots 12–17, Shots on target 5–6, Shots inside box 6–11, Big chances 2–3, Corners 5–9, Saves 5–2, Fouls 15–11, Offsides 1–3, Yellow cards 3–2.
Yes — both Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.