FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
LASK Linz 3–6 LiverpoolMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Liverpool to win at 64%. Bawler had LASK Linz at 15%, the draw at 21% and Liverpool at 64%. The match finished 3–6.
Pre-match probability vs result
LASK Linz win
15%
Draw
21%
Liverpool win
64%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 2.1
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 6
Total 9 (+5.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 3.3
From the match itself
The match produced 5.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Liverpool to win
Pre-match: 64%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.