FT · England: Premier League · Monday, 19 October 2026
Tottenham Hotspur 3–1 Coventry CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 19 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Tottenham Hotspur or draw at 74%. Bawler had Tottenham Hotspur at 48%, the draw at 26% and Coventry City at 26%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Tottenham Hotspur win
48%
Result
Draw
26%
Coventry City win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Coventry City to win
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries 77% confidence as Tottenham's 1.61 expected goals significantly outpaces Coventry's 1.17, suggesting multiple scoring opportunities across the match."