Bawler's model rates this match: Royal Charleroi SC are favoured (50% win probability vs 24% for KV Kortrijk, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is KV Kortrijk 1-1 Royal Charleroi SC (11.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.87.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives KV Kortrijk 24%, the draw 25% and Royal Charleroi SC 50%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (56% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.14 and away expected goals 1.73.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.87. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).