FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Royal Charleroi SC 2–3 Union St.-GilloiseMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Royal Charleroi SC at 34%, draw at 28%, Union St.-Gilloise at 39%. The match ended 2-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Union St.-Gilloise.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
34%
Draw
28%
St.-Gilloise win
39%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.28 – 1.39
Total 2.67
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries a 74% forecast after both sides generated nearly identical shot quality—Union at 1.38 xG, Charleroi at 1.28—signaling an evenly matched encounter despite the 5-point table gap."