FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Royal Charleroi SC 3–2 Cercle Brugge KSVMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Royal Charleroi SC at 58%, draw at 22%, Cercle Brugge KSV at 20%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Royal Charleroi SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
58%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
KSV win
20%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.11 – 1.19
Total 3.30
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 84%, backed by Charleroi's 0.64 xG edge and a combined expected-goal total of 3.30 that signals genuine attacking threat from both sides."