> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Sunday 28 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Jordan vs Argentina
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 74% probability because Argentina's 2.00 xG dwarfs Jordan's 0.77, giving the visitors enough attacking firepower to breach a 1.22 xG gap at home.
Win probability
11.9% home25.2% draw62.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
JordanstepArgentina
0.77Base xG · rolling 26-match2.00
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.77Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.00
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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13
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8
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10
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6
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Lautaro Martínez 5+ Shots + Under 10.5 Corners + Over 1.5 Goals + Under 8.5 SOT
Model 28.9% · @ 3.46x
Take this pick →> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Jordan 1–3 Argentina
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+