Match prediction·World: World Cup·Sunday 28 Jun, 02:00 UTC

Jordan vs Argentina

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 2.5 Goals sits at 74% probability because Argentina's 2.00 xG dwarfs Jordan's 0.77, giving the visitors enough attacking firepower to breach a 1.22 xG gap at home.

📊 Win probability
11.9% home25.2% draw62.9% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
JordanstepArgentina
0.77Base xG · rolling 26-match2.00
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.77Final goal estimate — what the model uses2.00

Jordan average 1.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Argentina average 6.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
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0
6
13
12
8
4
2
1
1
5
10
10
6
3
1
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2
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4
2
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1
1
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home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
74%
Over 3.5 goals
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Lautaro Martínez
Argentina · Inter Milan
52%
To score
Lionel Messi
Argentina · Inter Miami
50%
To score
Julián Álvarez
Argentina · Atletico Madrid
45%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Jordan vs Argentina — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Jordan and Argentina — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Jordan 12% · draw 25% · Argentina 63%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Jordan 13 Argentina
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.