Arsenal beat Ipswich Town 4–2. Ipswich Town had 8 shots (3 on target) to Arsenal's 12 (6), with 41% of the ball against 59%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 1.0.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Arsenal beat Ipswich Town 4–2. Ipswich Town had 8 shots (3 on target) to Arsenal's 12 (6), with 41% of the ball against 59%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 1.0.
Ipswich Town 2–4 Arsenal, played on 15 Sept 2026 in the England: EFL Cup. Bawler's model had gone into it with Ipswich Town 13%, the draw 22% and Arsenal 65%.
Full-time: Possession 41%–59%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–1.0, Shots 8–12, Shots on target 3–6, Shots inside box 6–9, Big chances 1–4, Corners 3–2, Saves 2–1, Fouls 11–13, Offsides 3–1, Yellow cards 2–0.
Yes — both Ipswich Town and Arsenal scored, finishing 2–4. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 47% before kickoff.