FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich TownMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester City to win at 69%. Bawler had Manchester City at 69%, the draw at 19% and Ipswich Town at 13%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Manchester City win
69%
Result
Draw
19%
Ipswich Town win
13%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 0.9
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.5 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Manchester City to win
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.