Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelBayern Munich on top: Harry Kane to test the keeper, and Martin Adeline kept busy stopping them.
Hamburg SV v Bayern Munich prediction
Our model makes Bayern Munich clear favourites for this Bundesliga game, with a 78% chance of winning. Hamburg SV are given 8%, and the draw 14%. Our predicted score is Hamburg SV 0–2 Bayern Munich, at 9%. We expect 3.9 goals in total: 0.9 for Hamburg SV and 3.0 for Bayern Munich. Both teams scoring is 58% and three or more goals is 75%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Hamburg SV have won none, Bayern Munich four, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Hamburger SV 2–2 Bayern München, in Jan 2026. In their last six games Hamburg SV have three wins, no draws and three defeats, while Bayern Munich have four wins, two draws and no defeats. Both won their most recent match.
Harry Kane is the player we expect to shoot most: 4.4 shots and 1.9 on target for Bayern Munich, if they start. For cards, Konrad Laimer (Bayern Munich) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. On shots, our forecast is 10.2 for Hamburg SV and 21.2 for Bayern Munich, with 3.3 and 7.8 on target, and corners at 3.1 to 7.3. So we expect Bayern Munich to do more of the shooting. Bawler's pick combines Bayern Munich or Draw, Martin Adeline 1+ Foul Committed and Harry Kane 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 61%, a fair price of 4/6 (1.64).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Hamburg SV · last 6
Bayern Munich · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Bayern Munich to win is 78% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win Hamburg SV vs Bayern Munich?
Bawler's model rates this match: Bayern Munich are favoured (78% win probability vs 8% for Hamburg SV, 14% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Hamburg SV vs Bayern Munich?
Bawler's predicted score is Hamburg SV 0-2 Bayern Munich: the most likely score if Bayern Munich win, which is the likeliest result (78%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.7%. Expected total goals: 3.9.
How does Bawler predict Hamburg SV vs Bayern Munich?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Hamburg SV 8%, the draw 14% and Bayern Munich 78%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Hamburg SV vs Bayern Munich?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Hamburg SV expecting 0.94 goals and Bayern Munich 2.99.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Hamburg SV vs Bayern Munich?
Bawler's model expects 3.9 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 75%.
When are the Hamburg SV v Bayern Munich line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Hamburg SV v Bayern Munich?
Bayern Munich or Draw (92%), Martin Adeline 1+ Foul Committed (76%), Harry Kane 1+ Shot on Target (80%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 61% chance, a fair price of 4/6 (1.64). 18+, please gamble responsibly.