FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 07 November 2026
Mainz 1–2 Bayern MunichMatch recap · Saturday, 07 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickVoid
Bayern Munich or Draw✓
Phillip Tietz 1+ Foul CommittedVoid
Harry Kane 1+ Shot on Target✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
Mainz win
15%
Draw
17%
Bayern Munich win
67%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 2.7
Total 4.0
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 2.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.