Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelWerder Bremen on top, with Niclas Füllkrug our likeliest to test the keeper.
Werder Bremen v Hamburg SV prediction
Our model gives Werder Bremen 57%, the draw 23% and Hamburg SV 20%, so Werder Bremen start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is Werder Bremen 2–1 Hamburg SV, the most likely Werder Bremen win (10%). Werder Bremen are expected to score 2.0 goals and Hamburg SV 1.1, 3.1 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (58%) and three or more goals is 60%.
On form, Werder Bremen have three wins, two draws and one defeat from their last six games, and Hamburg SV have three wins, no draws and three defeats. Niklas Stark of Werder Bremen is the most booked player in either squad, about once a game in 2025/26.
We expect Werder Bremen to have 18.5 shots (5.8 on target) and Hamburg SV 11.5 (3.6 on target), and corners at 5.4 to 3.4. That points to Werder Bremen doing more of the attacking. Of their last five meetings on our records, Werder Bremen have won three, Hamburg SV two. The last meeting ended Werder Bremen 3–1 Hamburger SV, in Apr 2026. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Werder Bremen or Draw, Werder Bremen Over 14.5 Shots and Niclas Füllkrug 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 49% on our numbers, so the fair price is Evens, or 2.05.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Werder Bremen · last 6
Hamburg SV · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Werder Bremen or draw is 80% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV?
Bawler's model rates this match: Werder Bremen are favoured (57% win probability vs 20% for Hamburg SV, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV?
Bawler's predicted score is Werder Bremen 2-1 Hamburg SV: the most likely score if Werder Bremen win, which is the likeliest result (57%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.8%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Werder Bremen 57%, the draw 23% and Hamburg SV 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Werder Bremen expecting 1.99 goals and Hamburg SV 1.13.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 60%.
When are the Werder Bremen v Hamburg SV line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Werder Bremen v Hamburg SV?
Werder Bremen or Draw (80%), Werder Bremen Over 14.5 Shots (76%), Niclas Füllkrug 1+ Shot on Target (70%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.05). 18+, please gamble responsibly.