> MATCH.PREDICT()ยทWorld: World CupยทMonday 29 Jun, 20:30 UTC
Germany vs Paraguay
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain โ every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals dominates at 71% because Germany's 1.94 xG plus Paraguay's 0.85 creates a 1.09-goal gap that favors attacking output on home soil.
Win probability
59.8% home26.3% draw13.9% away
xG chain โ base โ adjustments โ final ฮป
GermanystepParaguay
1.94Base xG ยท rolling 26-match0.85
no injury adjustment โ full squads available per FotMob
1.94Final ฮป โ what the Poisson uses0.85
Scoreline distribution ยท P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
5
2
1
1
12
10
4
1
2
12
10
4
1
3
7
6
3
1
4
4
3
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 7.5 SOT + Home Win + Under 10.5 Corners + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 32.3% ยท @ 3.09x
Take this pick โ> STAR_PICKS ยท player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
โก Full-time recap available
Germany 1โ1 Paraguay
See how the model called it ยท pick-by-pick verdict ยท xG vs actual โ
Statistical analysis for entertainment ยท Not betting advice ยท Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes ยท 18+