Fiorentina vs Frosinone prediction — Serie A · Sat 29 Aug · 17:30 UK

Serie A · Sat 29 Aug · 17:30 UK
Fiorentina 52Draw 25Frosinone 23
The call
76%
Over 1.5 goals
2.8
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–3

How it finished

Frosinone beat Fiorentina 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Fiorentina at 52% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Frosinone 23%. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Fiorentina had 25 shots (4 on target) to Frosinone's 12 (6), with 60% of the ball against 40%. On expected goals it was 1.9 to 1.1, so Fiorentina created the better chances and still lost the game.

FiorentinaFull-time statsFrosinone
60%Possession40%
1.9Expected goals (xG)1.1
25Shots12
4Shots on target6
14Shots inside box10
1Big chances3
8Corners5
3Saves4
14Fouls21
1Offsides1
3Yellow cards3
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultFiorentina 52%Frosinone (23% called)
Total goals2.83
Both teams to score53%No
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 76%Landed
Second callHome Win 52%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Fiorentina to score82%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Under 3.5 goals70%
Frosinone to score65%

First half — what we expected

FiorentinaBefore half-timeFrosinone
48%Chance to score37%
7.6Expected shots3.2
2.0Expected shots on target0.9
2.6Expected corners0.1
61%Chance of 7+ shots6%
35%Chance of 9+ shots1%
65%Chance of 1+ shots on target60%
31%Chance of 3+ shots on target7%
71%Chance of 2+ corners1%
28%Chance of 4+ corners0%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 67%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.7 / match
Head-to-head, last 5FIO 1 · D 3 · FRO 1
Opponent strength indexUpper mid

Head to head

Feb 2024Fiorentina 5–1 Frosinone
Sept 2023Frosinone 1–1 Fiorentina
Apr 2019Fiorentina 0–1 Frosinone
Nov 2018Frosinone 1–1 Fiorentina
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Fiorentina vs Frosinone?

Frosinone beat Fiorentina 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Fiorentina at 52% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Frosinone 23%. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Fiorentina had 25 shots (4 on target) to Frosinone's 12 (6), with 60% of the ball against 40%. On expected goals it was 1.9 to 1.1, so Fiorentina created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Frosinone?

Fiorentina 0–3 Frosinone, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Fiorentina 52%, the draw 25% and Frosinone 23%.

What were the stats in Fiorentina vs Frosinone?

Full-time: Possession 60%–40%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–1.1, Shots 25–12, Shots on target 4–6, Shots inside box 14–10, Big chances 1–3, Corners 8–5, Saves 3–4, Fouls 14–21, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 3–3.

Did both teams score in Fiorentina vs Frosinone?

No. It finished 0–3, so Fiorentina failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Fiorentina vs Frosinone right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Fiorentina 52%, it finished Frosinone (23% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 53%, it finished No; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 76%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said Home Win 52%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Fiorentina form →Frosinone form →