FC Twente beat Telstar 1–0. Bawler's model had FC Twente in front at 68% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.5 goals; only 1 was scored. FC Twente had 22 shots (8 on target) to Telstar's 3 (2), with 63% of the ball against 37%. Expected goals finished 2.5 to 0.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
FC Twente beat Telstar 1–0. Bawler's model had FC Twente in front at 68% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.5 goals; only 1 was scored. FC Twente had 22 shots (8 on target) to Telstar's 3 (2), with 63% of the ball against 37%. Expected goals finished 2.5 to 0.2.
FC Twente 1–0 Telstar, played on 09 Sept 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with FC Twente 68%, the draw 18% and Telstar 14%.
Full-time: Possession 63%–37%, Expected goals (xG) 2.5–0.2, Shots 22–3, Shots on target 8–2, Shots inside box 14–3, Big chances 2–0, Corners 9–2, Saves 2–7, Fouls 10–11, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 1–3.
No. It finished 1–0, so Telstar failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said FC Twente to win 68%, it finished FC Twente won (68% called); Total goals — we said 3.5, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished No.