FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Fortuna Sittard 1–1 FC TwenteMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was FC Twente to win at 63%. Bawler had Fortuna Sittard at 16%, the draw at 21% and FC Twente at 63%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fortuna Sittard win
16%
Draw
21%
Result
FC Twente win
63%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 2.2
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Twente to win
Pre-match: 63%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.