FC Cincinnati vs 
San Jose Earthquakes
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 83% because both sides generate nearly identical attacking threat—Cincinnati's 1.81 xG and San Jose's 1.68 xG project a high-scoring script, with Evander's creative influence keeping the hosts sharp.
San Jose EarthquakesCincinnati average 4.6 corners per game at home this season (28 competitive matches). San Jose Earthquakes average 5.0 corners per game away from home this season (21 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Cincinnati and San Jose Earthquakes — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Cincinnati 39% · draw 27% · San Jose Earthquakes 34%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
San Jose EarthquakesModel estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.