Who will win Everton vs Crystal Palace?

Bawler's model rates this match: Everton are favoured (44% win probability vs 27% for Crystal Palace, 29% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Everton vs Crystal Palace?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Everton 1-1 Crystal Palace (11.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.75.

How does Bawler predict Everton vs Crystal Palace?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Everton 44%, the draw 29% and Crystal Palace 27%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?

BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.57 and away expected goals 1.18.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Everton vs Crystal Palace?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.75. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Match prediction·England: Premier League·Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Everton vs Crystal Palace

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability

43.9% home28.8% draw27.3% away

📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate

Evertonstep

Crystal Palace

1.57Base xG · rolling 26-match1.18

no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob

1.57Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.18

Everton average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (20 competitive matches). Crystal Palace average 4.1 corners per game away from home this season (27 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate

home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 13 Aug 2026

EvertonHome

Unavailable / doubtful

James Garner — Groin surgery during pre-season
Expected return: Back in first-team training around Premier League opening week; Goodison News (25 Jul) says he is 'almost…
Jarrad Branthwaite — Hamstring (curtailed 2025/26); returned ahead of schedule
Expected return: Already back — played 45 minutes v Bolton 25 Jul, rested v Stoke as a precaution.
Tyler Dibling — Minor knock
Expected return: Missed Bolton, expected back v Stoke. Not a long-term concern.
Hayden Hackney — Knock carried over from end of 2025/26
Expected return: Missed Dundee and Bolton; started/expected debut v Stoke 28 Jul. Effectively available.

Latest updates

13 Aug · Departure
Dwight McNeil joins Crystal Palace on four-year deal in Johnson swap
McNeil, 26, left Everton for Crystal Palace on 11 Aug as the other half of the Johnson deal, signing a four-year contract.
13 Aug · Signing
Everton sign Brennan Johnson from Crystal Palace on four-year deal
Everton and Crystal Palace confirmed a rare straight swap on 11 Aug: Wales winger Brennan Johnson joins Everton on a four-year deal for an undisclosed fee, seven months after a £35m move…

Crystal PalaceAway

Unavailable / doubtful

Eddie Nketiah — Thigh injury (physioroom.com EPL injury table, fetched 30 Jul 2026). Appears to be a NEW issue picked up between 18 and 30 July - he scored a brace vs Swindon on 18 July…
Expected return: Unverified - no return date published
Cheick Doucoure — Listed only as 'other' injury type on physioroom.com. History of a serious knee problem requiring surgery in Jan 2025; whether this is a recurrence is unverified
Expected return: Unverified - no return date published

Latest updates

13 Aug · Departure
Brennan Johnson leaves Palace for Everton in swap deal after 26 goalless games
Johnson, 25, completed a move to Everton on 11 August as the other half of the McNeil swap, signing a four-year deal.
13 Aug · Signing
Dwight McNeil joins Palace on four-year deal in straight swap with Everton
McNeil, 26, completed a move to Selhurst Park on 11 August in a rare straight swap that took Brennan Johnson to Everton, signing a four-year contract. Fees were undisclosed.

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 13 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

EvertonHome4-2-3-1 · shape not settled
Goalkeeper
GKJordan Pickford
Defence
RBJake O'Brien (a centre-back filling in; club actively seeking a specialist RB)CBJames Tarkowski (c)CBJarrad BranthwaiteLBVitalii Mykolenko
Midfield
CMTim IroegbunamCMHayden Hackney / Merlin RöhlAMKiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Attack
RWTyler DiblingLWIliman Ndiaye (subject to Al-Hilal interest)STThierno Barry / Beto
Selection doubts
·STRIKER — Thierno Barry vs Beto, genuinely wide open.
·RIGHT-BACK — Everton's biggest hole.

Crystal PalaceAwayShape not settled
Goalkeeper
GKDean Henderson (captain since January 2026, undisputed No.1)
Defence
CBChris RichardsCBChadi RiadCBOscar Mingueza (if back three)RWB/RBDaniel MunozLWB/LBTyrick Mitchell
Midfield
CMAdam Wharton (transfer risk)CMJefferson Lerma or Will HughesAMYeremy PinoAMDaichi Kamada or Ismaila Sarr (transfer risk)
Attack
STJean-Philippe Mateta or Jorgen Strand Larsen
Selection doubts
·VERY LOW CONFIDENCE - no actual starting-XI or formation data could be obtained for any of the four preseason matches.
·Centre-forward: Jean-Philippe Mateta vs Jorgen Strand Larsen (club-record signing worth up to £48m, joined Feb 2026, scored a brace vs Swindon on 18 July).

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

TarkowskiEVE · DEF · £6.0m3.6 pts

RichardsCRY · DEF · £5.0m3.6 pts

SarrCRY · MID · £6.5m3.5 pts

All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

Everton fixtures & form →

Crystal Palace fixtures & form →

Everton vs Crystal Palace — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 10 May 2026, Everton have won 0, Crystal Palace have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

Date	Result	Competition
10 May 2026	Crystal Palace 2–2 Everton	England: Premier League

The model's verdict for this fixture: Everton 44% · draw 29% · Crystal Palace 27%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Everton predictions & form →Crystal Palace predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.