Bawler / Ecuador vs Curaçao / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Sunday, 21 June 2026

Ecuador 0–0 CuraçaoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 21 June 2026

Ecuador
0–0
Draw
Curaçao
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Ecuador at 40%, draw at 32%, Curaçao at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Ecuador to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Ecuador win
40%
Draw
32%
Actual ✓
Curaçao win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.47 – 1.22
Total 2.69
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.7 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 75% probability because Ecuador's creator Moisés Caicedo and striker Enner Valencia combine for 34% of team xG in a fixture projecting 2.69 total goals."

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