Ecuador vs Curaçao
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 75% probability because Ecuador's creator Moisés Caicedo and striker Enner Valencia combine for 34% of team xG in a fixture projecting 2.69 total goals.
Ecuador average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Ecuador vs Curaçao — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Ecuador and Curaçao — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Ecuador 40% · draw 32% · Curaçao 29%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.