What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 73%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
Dinamo Zagreb are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Anderlecht. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Dinamo Zagreb or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht?
Bawler's model rates this match: Dinamo Zagreb are favoured (49% win probability vs 25% for Anderlecht, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Dinamo Zagreb 1-1 Anderlecht (11.7% probability). Expected total goals: 2.93.
How does Bawler predict Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Dinamo Zagreb 49%, the draw 25% and Anderlecht 25%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht?
BTTS: Yes (57% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.74 and away expected goals 1.19.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.93. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).