Match prediction·USA: MLS·Saturday 01 Aug, 23:30 UTC

D.C. United vs Nashville SC

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 68% because D.C. United's 1.40 xG at home edges Nashville's 1.16 enough to sustain goal-heavy projection in a narrow xG gap.

📊 Win probability
39.1% home32.6% draw28.3% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
D.C. UnitedstepNashville SC
1.24Base xG · rolling 26-match1.23
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.16

D.C. United average 4.9 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Nashville average 4.8 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
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5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
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4
2
1
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1
1
1
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home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
68%
Under 2.5 goals
52%
Draw
20%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

D.C. United vs Nashville — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 10 May 2026, D.C. United have won 0, Nashville have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
10 May 2026Nashville 22 D.C. UnitedUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: D.C. United 39% · draw 33% · Nashville 28%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
D.C. United 22 Nashville SC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.